We seem to have avoided the Thucydides Trap. The inevitable conflict triggered by the insecurity in the world¡¯s leading power created by the rise of a challenger has not yet materialized. Don¡¯t get too comfortable, however, now, the talk is of World War III.
Last week, Politico¡¯s National Security Daily warned that ¡°connections between many of the world¡¯s conflicts are multiplying¡± and ¡°officials, analysts and investors are increasingly asking whether humanity is on the verge of World War III.¡±
My instinct upon reading that was to skip to the next item in that daily mailer. Conflicts are spreading and superpower confrontation is a possibility, but world war? Come on! Still, warning signs are flashing and it¡¯s worth asking how close we are to a global conflict, and what it means to be slouching and sliding toward a wider, perhaps world, war.
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