The story of Ukraine¡¯s defense against Russian invasion is one of remarkable resilience, punctuated by tragedies of mistiming that have prevented it from turning advantage into success, thus extending the agonies of war. Kyiv¡¯s allies in the West have been at fault for most of these failures and it seems clear they are about to deliver another.
The news from the battlefield this year has in general been good for Kyiv. After surviving a tough year of adaptation and the grimmest winter of the war to date, Ukraine¡¯s forces stopped a Russian spring offensive in its tracks. Since then, Moscow¡¯s territorial gains have been the slowest since 2023 and they¡¯ve been made at the cost of soaring troop losses. Given that Ukraine¡¯s entire frontline strategy has been based on ceding small amounts of territory in exchange for ultimately unsustainable casualty rates, that¡¯s a win.
Just as important have been Kyiv¡¯s new long-range strike capabilities. These are, for the first time, taking the war deep into Russia. Ordinary consumers are feeling the conflict¡¯s effects via inflation, gasoline shortages and the destruction of distribution warehouses across much of the country. Deep military supply lines are being disrupted. Crimea has become barely habitable and the Sea of Azov unnavigable.
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